The bank said $186,000 on Friday morning, before the decisions. It says $186,000 now, in the afternoon. It knows nothing about the four commitments you just made, or what they will do to cash in the months ahead.
You most likely decided the way most founders and CEOs decide: today's balance, a feel for what sales should bring in, and judgement. Gut feel, built on the first number, today's bank balance.
That is not a criticism. It is how whole years get run. There is a better way.
There is a second number. It takes about four questions to find, and none of them need a spreadsheet.
You just built a forecast from four things you already knew. The four decisions you made in the fog are not separate from it, they are what it is for. Watch where each one bends the path you could not see when you chose.
Four questions. Things you already knew. No spreadsheet, no accountant, no model. The path drew itself from what was in your head.
A forecast is not a smoke alarm. It is headlights. Sometimes it warns you. Just as often it says yes, and tells you when.
You built this one in four questions with Preview Co's numbers. Yours are sitting in your accounting software right now.